交通运输业是碳排放的重要来源之一，其减排成效对实现“双碳”目标具有重要影响。本文采用影子价格方法，对2010-2020年期间中国30个省份的交通运输业碳减排成本进行测算。在此基础上，从公平和效率视角出发对各省份的碳减排潜力进行评估，并利用空间杜宾模型对影响碳减排潜力的因素进行分析。研究发现：2010—2020年间中国各省份交通运输业碳减排成本波动上升，呈现“西高东低”的特点；各省份碳减排潜力差距较大，整体呈现出“东高西低”的态势；影响碳减排潜力的因素主要有科技投入、运输结构、经济发展水平、产业结构和信息化水平，其中科技投入的增加是降低交通运输业碳排放的关键因素。为切实推进交通运输业碳减排，应努力降低减排成本，充分挖掘减排潜力，深入推进区域协同减排。

With the transportation sector a significant source of carbon emissions， its emission reduction effectiveness plays a critical role in achieving the “dual carbon” goals. This study adopts the shadow price method to estimate the carbon emission reduction costs of the transportation sector across 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020. On this basis， the carbon emission reduction potential of each province is evaluated from the perspectives of equity and efficiency， and the Spatial Durbin Model is used to analyze the factors influencing carbon emission reduction potential. The research findings are as follows：（1） From 2010 to 2020， the carbon emission reduction costs of China’s transportation sector exhibited an upward trend with fluctuations， characterized by higher costs in the western regions compared to the eastern regions. （2） Significant disparities exist in carbon emission reduction potential among provinces， with the eastern regions generally showing higher potential than the western regions. （3） The main factors influencing the carbon emission reduction potential include scientific and technological investment， transportation structure， economic development level， industrial structure and informatization level. Among them， the increase in scientific and technological expenditure is the key factor in reducing carbon emissions in the transportation industry. To effectively promote carbon reduction in the transportation sector， efforts should focus on reducing emission reduction costs， fully leveraging emission reduction potential， and deeply promoting regional collaborative emission reduction.